By Kent Matthews (auth.)
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They could not have been more wrong. The Treasury maintains a large-scale computer-based model which is used by the government to conduct policy design, but other institutions also have models which are used for forecasting and policy analysis. 44 Macroeconomics and the Market The most prestigious model-based forecasts (but not necessarily the most accurate) are produced by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the London Business School (LBS). Academic-based forecasters are the Liverpool Macroeconomic Forecasting Group, the Oxford Economic Forecasting Group and the Henley Centre.
Another way of evaluating the effects of policy is to make a 'base forecast' on the basis of certain assumptions for the exogenous variables and then compare this with other projections arising from a change in an exogenous policy variable. Optimal policy design is a speciality of macroeconomists. The usual case in reality is that the authorities have more targets than instruments. Therefore they do not satisfy 'Tinbergen's Principle'. The targets may be low unemployment, low inflation, high growth, current account balance and so on.
By converse reasoning, points to the right of the EB schedule indicate a balance of payments surplus, requiring a fall in the rate of interest or a rise in the budget deficit. 4 puts both schedules together. The slope of the EB schedule will be steeper than the slope of the IB schedule provided capital flows are responsive to interest rates (capital mobility). This is because if capital is not mobile, the only way to ensure balance of payments equilibrium for combinations of budget deficit and interest rate is if the level of output remained at a constant level.